DILIMAN, Quezon City — Poll surveys are showing allies of former president Rodrigo Roa Duterte (FPRRD) gaining momentum in the run-up to the May 12 midterm elections but despite this, three in five Filipinos support having Duterte face trial before the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague in the Netherlands.

According to University of the Philippines (UP) Department of Political Science chairman and professor Aries Arugay, it appears that many Filipino voters have compartmentalized their views in wanting the former chief executive to be held accountable for alleged crimes against humanity, while still supporting the Senate bids of his closest allies.

"The Filipino public might not connect the two. They may want Duterte to face trial at The Hague, but also vote based on name recall, loyalty or patronage. Our voting behavior isn't always issue-based," Arugay noted.

The UP professor highlighted the historical weight of regional and ethnolinguistic loyalty in shaping electoral decisions.

"In the 2022 elections, support for Duterte and geographic identity were the two strongest influences on voting patterns. These factors remain 'sticky' in the current political climate," he pointed out.

Based on the latest results of recent polls, a significant climb has been observed in the numbers of Duterte-backed candidates. Senator Christopher Lawrence 'Bong' Go has overtaken erstwhile leading senatorial aspirant Erwin Tulfo to clinch the top spot while former Philippine National Police (PNP) chief Ronald 'Bato' Dela Rosa, one of Duterte's staunchest defenders, jumped from the lower ranks to the top 5 among winnable 'senatoriables'.

Arugay had to admitted that the so-called 'Duterte magic' remains a potent force in local politics. In contrast here is the worrisome showing of President Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos Jr. (PBBM)'s elder sister, lady senator Maria Imelda Josefa Remedios 'Imee' Marcos-Manotoc, who is slipping in the rankings, barely holding on to a spot within the top 16.

Meanwhile, candidates associated with the opposition, like former senator Paolo Benigno 'Bam' Aquino IV, appear to have reached a ceiling with their numbers reflecting stagnation among voters aligned with former vice president Maria Leonor 'Leni' Robredo.

Finally, Arugay underscored an enduring trend in the country’s political and electoral cycle, that if the dominance of celebrities in the Senate as candidates like Tulfo, Salvador and popular television host Willie Revillame—all with entertainment or media backgrounds—are proving more viable than some legislators with proven policy track records.

He warned that due to this trend, "the institutional quality of the Senate may suffer when media popularity becomes the main qualification and impacts legislative performance and the ability to check executive power."